Egypt: A Preliminary Sorting of Thoughts

Since returning to the States, a number of people have asked me for any insider points of view I might have on the situation in Egypt. I've hastily brushed off all such requests. "How do you feel about being back in America?" Fine. "Do you think you'll return to Egypt?" I have no idea. "What do you think will happen next in Egypt?" Your guess is as good as mine. "Do you think this unrest will spread to the rest of the Arab world?" Not sure. Probably nowhere besides maybe Algeria and Yemen, but I was shocked when Egypt exploded as quickly as it did, so I'm probably not the best person to ask.

...but then something unrelated will set me off, and I'll go on an unorganized rant. I apologize to any friends who have suffered this mindless prattling. Again, I'm no expert on what's going on. My guesses on the future of Egypt are typically based just on anecdotal evidence and hunches. But in an attempt to sort out my thoughts, mostly just so I don't end up doing so verbally with friends (think "word vomit" from Mean Girls) I've decided to sort out my thoughts a bit each day with a journal entry/blog post. If any of you feel motivated to read my disorganized spiels, go ahead. I just can't promise they'll be worth much. Okay, enough qualifiers. Here goes nothing:

Today, I'd like to start with President Mubarak's shocking afternoon speech. After two weeks of escalating protests - tens of thousands of people are still pouring into Cairo's Tahrir Square by the day - Mubarak announced he would give a speech this evening. Most assumed he would step down. Top military officials in Egypt said that "the protesters have won." Even the head of the CIA thought Mubarak was going to resign. Instead, in an amazing show of defiance, Mubarak reiterated that he would stay in power. He promised to transfer some power over to the (not terribly popular) new Vice President.

Mubarak has often cited his "responsibility" to the country of Egypt as his reason for sticking around until the election in September. He frequently threatens that the region would descend into chaos without him, namely in reference to Israel. Scarily, one doesn't know how far off-base this threat is. Mubarak's regime receives a lot of money each year from the US to like Israel, and Egypt carries a lot of clout militarily and diplomatically throughout the Arab world. Egypt also is at the other end of a bunch of tunnels often used to smuggle arms into Gaza, and while Egypt has typically closed these tunnels as they've been discovered, these tunnels might become more tolerated under a new regime. Whatever democratically elected leader replaces Mubarak likely won't be as nice to Israel because, well, people in Egypt are really, really pissed off about the entire Palestine/Israel conflict. Last fall, even after a round of embarrassingly rigged parliamentary elections, most Egyptians I spoke with didn't seem too riled up about their country's political situation (which is one more reason I was shocked to see such grassroots anger explode in the past two weeks). Mention Israel, though, and you got a lot of impassioned Egyptians. I never really encountered much anti-Americanism during my tenure in Egypt. Unless one somehow started talking about Israel. Then people got irate and started yelling.

I'm not even going to try to delve into Palestine/Israel in this entry. Too hard. Too messy. All I'm going to say is that Egyptians are pissed about the mess, largely at Israel and, because of the aid we give Israel (nevermind that Egypt is the second highest recipient of US aid in the world, after Israel [excluding Iraq/Afghanistan as of late]), they're also mad at us.

So, how does the US respond to the current situation in Egypt? By doing just what we've been doing: acknowledging the protesters and affirming their complaints as legitimate, but by not saying much more. Why? Well, first off: the complaints really are legitimate. Imagine the grassroots anger that must have been present for a leader-less group of protesters to organize a million people, especially after the internet was cut nation-wide and cell phone reception blocked in Cairo. But Mubarak is digging in his heels. Part of Mubarak's speech today was dedicated to rebuking any outside powers that want to meddle in Egypt's future. We have no idea what kind of power vacuum would be created if Mubarak did suddenly leave office. Mubarak's days are numbered. But creating some sort of transitional government is the best way to ensure an orderly transfer of power. It may mean that the new government is largely a reshuffling of the old one. But maybe some decent political reforms (term limits for future presidents, greater autonomy for the Supreme Constitutional Court, more oversight and accountability during elections) can be snuck in in the process.

Furthermore, the United States has been rebuked for engaging in too much open nation-building as of late. It's horribly out-of-fashion. Making conclusive statements about who should or should not be in power is a great way to make enemies, especially when nobody really knows who will be in power in six months. It's also a great way to end up fielding the blame when the person we do endorse turns into a dictator. Furthermore, given the lack of leadership or organization in the protests, there aren't a ton of viable candidates to promote. So maybe staying silent-ish is the best option. Push for constitutional reforms with a nice mix of soft power and that multi-billion dollar aid package we throw at Egypt each year and hope for the best.

Unfortunately, this plan isn't helping the US's credibility with the Egyptian people. Since we aren't pushing for change, at least as outwardly as Egyptians are, we're seen as agents of the status quo. And if there's one things Egyptians do agree on, it's that the status quo needs to be over, yesterday.

When the protests in Egypt first started, some uninformed, alarmist reporters State-side (*ahem* Fox News) warned that Egypt could go the way of Iran. That's unlikely. Egyptians don't want that to happen. And I'm confident that Egypt's rather strong army would step in if the government in Cairo started resembling that of Tehran. Sure, power vacuums are scary. And the Muslim Brotherhood isn't a huge fan of Israel. But the MB isn't behind the protests. It's also not a monolithic block that is against all things democracy and Israel. Its leadership has even sworn off violence as of late. The MB is a highly complicated, multi-faceted organization and, as of now, it's saying it won't try to come to power at all. And even if the MB were better represented in future governments - which it perhaps should be, if the government is to reflect the Egyptian people's views - that doesn't mean that Egypt will be the next Iran. Again though, it could mean that a new regime is not as friendly toward Israel, which is unsettling because it could upset the precarious balance of power in the Middle East/North Africa.

So here we have it: a most intense version of the balance we try to promote with our foreign policy - democracy and stability. Nobody wants Egypt to descend into chaos. I would hope that even Mubarak doesn't want that, though given his nearly sinister response to the protesters starting a week ago (seriously, molotov cocktails? being thrown at peaceful protestors?) one can't be sure. I hope that he is just understanding the region's intense need for a stable Egypt. Sure, he's overstayed his welcome by using stability as an excuse. But he'll be gone soon. Given the response to Mubarak's speech tonight, I'll be shocked if he really does make it until September. Hopefully the protests don't get much more violent (...tonight might be scary after his speech). That all said, if Mubarak proves resilient, it may dampen the other protests in the region; if he goes, other countries might be inspired to pull a Tunisia. But are these excuses to keep a leader around when at least a million people are calling on him to leave? Will it hurt our credibility that he is assumed to be working with us? In the name of stability, do either of those questions matter that much?

All things considered, I really don't know what will happen next. I don't know if the region will plummet into chaos. I'd like to think it won't. At least not in the extremely repressive (Libya, Syria) or wealthy (Saudi Arabia, the Emirates) states. Again though, I didn't think Egypt would turn this violent, and I was obviously wrong there. Hilariously, Iran is siding with the protesters, while Mubarak is probably just hoping to re-enact Ahmadinejad's amazing ability to stay in power after rigged elections and nation-wide riots.

As someone hoping to study political transitions in the Middle East/North Africa, I must admit that the whole situation is at the very least fascinating. Before going to Egypt I remember lamenting that I would be there the year BEFORE the presidential election next September. I thought any interesting transitions would happen then. Good thing I'm not a professional analyst: I totally failed with these predictions.

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May 6, 2011
An end note: It certainly was interesting to go back and read this blog three months later. I hilariously mentioned Libya and Syria as places where the governments might be too repressive for protests to take hold. Totally wrong! :) This momentum isn't done yet, folks. We have interesting short- and medium-terms ahead of us in the Middle East/North Afria.